Work in progress
Abstract: By diverting and distorting bilateral trade flows, trade wars shift export patterns and market concentration around the globe. In this paper, we estimate parameters in n-country general equilibrium trade model featuring oligopolistic competition with data from a rich panel of firm-level exports from 11 low and middle-income countries to 165 destinations that report bilateral and multilateral tariffs to the World Trade Organization. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of firm entry into and exit from relatively concentrated product markets at the level of origin-destination country pairs. The impact of a trade war on welfare and prices is dominated by the entry, exit, and pricing decisions by a few large, productive firms. These decisions have first-order effects on the reallocation of market power among firms within and across borders.
Abstract: This paper uses matched UK administrative data to examine the impact of trade shocks on R&D investments of UK manufacturing firms from 2002 to 2011. We pay particular attention to the controversial effect of Chinese import competition on firm innovation. Our analysis provides strong evidence that the rise in imports from China, following its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, led to a significant decrease in R&D spending among UK firms. Importantly, we find considerable heterogeneity in this effect based on firm size: Chinese competition was particularly detrimental to the R&D of small firms, while its impact on large firms was not statistically significant. We also document the positive role of export market size in stimulating firm R&D, indicating that booming export demand during this period helped to somewhat offset the adverse effects of Chinese competition.